BBC Preview: Santana gets two starts for Mets

For even more statistics and advice to help you set your Baseball Challenge lineup, check out Tristan's Week 6 Fantasy Forecaster!

It's a good thing I like omelets, because of the amount of egg on my face …

Bill W., Tacoma, Wash.: I am very curious about your lineup in your weekly preview column. It seems the lineup you post and the lineup you actually use for that week do not match. Do I need new glasses or are you pulling the old switcheroo?

No, Bill, no need to rush to the doctor's to update your prescription. What you saw in my column and then saw on the Web site were indeed different Baseball Challenge lineups. And I wasn't trying to pull the wool over your eyes.

There's a simple explanation: Last Friday, generally the time I finalize my BBC weekly lineup (so that you can read it in the column), I went through all the matchups, made my pitching staff and daily-pick choices, and then carefully selected the lineup that you saw in the bottom part of my column at the time I filed what you read. And then -- perhaps because I was too charged up about it being Friday and therefore pizza night -- I committed a very simple, yet devastating, error …

I apparently neglected to click the "Save Roster" button. Arrrrrrrrggggggghhhh!

Through multiple decades of playing in countless fantasy baseball leagues -- often more than a dozen per season -- I can't remember another time I've done that. What can I say? I'm not about to sweep my mistake under the carpet. It was an error, simple as that. Best I can tell you is to use my example to avoid doing the same yourself in the future.

One thing's for sure: You can't count on being as lucky as I've been through four days of running the wrong lineup out there. The Week 5 lineup I had proposed would have scored me only two more BBC points than the Week 4 lineup that had been carried over. That's not something you're going to see happen much if you make a mistake, and it's certainly not a trend I anticipate lasting through Week 5's three remaining days.

Want to talk smack? Feel free: E-mail me. And don't be afraid to bust my chops. I can take it.

1. Chicago Cubs (SD-3, HOU-3 -- two-start pitcher Rich Harden), 6.5 price tag: Even with Carlos Zambrano absent and Harden not exactly his typical self (yet), I'm tabbing the Cubs No. 1 because of their history at Wrigley and the matchups themselves. First, as I pointed out in the Forecaster, Harden, Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster have extraordinary recent histories at Wrigley, and second, both the Padres and Astros rank among the 10 worst offenses in baseball through nearly five weeks. In fact, San Diego (predictably) has the worst offense in the game through the first seven days of May (2.4 runs per game, .565 team OPS), and Houston has a pathetic .683 team OPS on the road.

2. New York Mets (ATL-3, @SF-4 -- two-start pitchers Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey), 6.2: Seven games. Johan Santana a two-start pitcher. OK, with those two phrases I could move on to the next pick, but I'll toss you some more statistics to back it up, which by the way didn't make my Forecaster "Load up: Pitchers" section if only because I think it's a stronger weekly matchup for the BBC than it is for straight Rotisserie: San Francisco is the National League's worst offense (3.7 runs per game, .668 team OPS), and Atlanta as a team has totaled 41 runs in its past 11 games (3.7 per).

3. Detroit Tigers (@MIN-3, OAK-3 -- two-start pitcher Armando Galarraga), 5.5: My matchups/deep-value sleeper of the week, as the Tigers are actually getting some decent pitching performances out of Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello, and Justin Verlander in his past two turns has looked like the Cy Young candidate many -- myself included -- believed he could be a year ago. Sure, there's the worry that Dontrelle Willis might implode on Wednesday, but if there's any time to gamble on him, it's probably in a start against the Twins, whose team OPS against left-handers is .630. By the way, Oakland has a vile .653 team OPS through 26 games. These matchups couldn't be tastier.

… that Manny Ramirez, who will now sit out until July 3 (which by the way is Friday of Week 13 of the BBC, and the next-to-last week of Segment 1) due to his 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance, was the 10th-most owned player in the BBC in Week 5. He could be found on 14.2 percent of BBC teams overall, and was owned by a staggering 17 percent of teams that resided in the weekly format.

By the way, you weekly-league Manny owners: He earned you 18 points for Week 5, which is more than either Ryan Braun or Nick Markakis had in all of Week 4, and four short of Grady Sizemore's total in that week. I'll leave it up to you to decide whether that means Manny had a good enough short week, or that my outfield simply stinks.

And for the record, while I did defend Juan Pierre's increased value in traditional Rotisserie leagues on Thursday, in no way do I think he's an attractive BBC addition. Even getting everyday at-bats. Even at a 4.0 price tag.

Monday, May 11 -- Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds (versus Jon Garland), 4.5 price tag: It's about time he started hitting, isn't it? Phillips is 12-for-33 (.364 BA) with four home runs and 12 RBIs in his past eight games, and in his career against Garland he's 5-for-12 (.417 BA) with two doubles and two homers. Another promising sign: In the Reds' only three-game trip to Chase Field in 2008, Phillips went 4-for-11 with one double, one home run, three walks and one stolen base.

Tuesday, May 12 -- Jason Giambi, 1B, Athletics (versus Sidney Ponson), 4.0: Giambi loves facing his former teammate -- OK, so they were teammates only briefly during Ponson's two brief stints as a Yankee. It still counts -- as he's a .425 hitter (17-for-40) with two homers in his career against the right-hander. What's better: He also has 14 walks versus Ponson. Love those guys who pad their point totals with walks!

Wednesday, May 13 -- Justin Upton, RF, Diamondbacks (versus Johnny Cueto), 4.8: This might have the makings of a rivalry, though through two meetings, it has been all Upton thus far. He's 2-for-4 in his career against the right-hander, both of the hits home runs, and has added a walk. Plus, Upton has always been much more comfortable in his home games; he has a career home OPS 301 points higher than on the road.

Thursday, May 14 -- Mike Napoli, C, Angels (versus Brad Penny), 4.4: He had two at-bats in an April 11 game against Penny, and in each of them he hit a home run. Sure, it's asking a lot for Napoli to do something like that again, but seeing as he's a .417 hitter (15-for-36) with three homers in his past 10 games, I wouldn't expect much less.

Friday, May 15 -- Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals (versus Joe Blanton), 4.9: These fellas have amassed a lot of history in a very short period of time. They've matched up in 12 plate appearances since last Aug. 19 alone. Zimmerman has homered in each of his past two at-bats against Blanton, both on April 27, and he's 5-for-11 (.455 BA) with one double, one triple and two homers against the right-hander for his career.

Saturday, May 16 -- Aubrey Huff, 1B, Orioles (versus Kyle Davies), 5.1: These two squared off just once in their careers, on July 3, 2008, and in three at-bats Huff torched the Royals right-hander for a double and two home runs. Oh, and Davies has served up five home runs and allowed 16 runs in his past three starts. Yeah, that's a good matchup.

Sunday, May 17 -- Ben Francisco, LF, Indians (versus Andy Sonnanstine), 3.1: Sometimes, just sometimes, you need a dirt-cheapie to fill out your daily lineup, and here's as fine a choice as any. In the only two games in his career he has faced Sonnanstine, Francisco homered in each and went 4-for-5 with four RBIs against the right-hander.

Total points: 1,443 (through Thursday).
Percentage: 99.5. Overall rank: 273rd.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 42nd.

C -- Victor Martinez, Indians (CHW-3, @TB-4), locked at 4.8 price tag, 5.5 market: Now he has 32 points on anyone at his position.
1B -- Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (@MIN-3, OAK-3), locked at 5.0, 5.4 market: With three games against left-handed starters, Cabrera has earned his stay of execution.
2B -- Ian Kinsler, Rangers (SEA-3, LAA-3), locked at 5.0, 5.9 market: Six games, all at home? Uh, yes please.
3B -- David Wright, Mets (ATL-3, @SF-4), 4.7: Oh David Wright, how I love you at this bargain-basement price tag.
SS -- Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (@MIL-3, LAD-3), 5.0: No longer any injury worries with him, productive as he has been so far in Week 5.
LF -- Ryan Braun, Brewers (FLA-3, @STL-3), locked at 4.8, 5.4 market: Another guy who has encouraged me in the health department these past few days.
CF -- Carlos Beltran, Mets (ATL-3, @SF-4), 5.3: I swear, I'm not a Mets fan. I just like that it's a matchups-friendly seven-game schedule.
RF -- Nick Markakis, Orioles (TB-2, @KC-4), locked at 5.0, 5.9 market: He has 11 points on any other right fielder and 31 on the No. 3 man, Jayson Werth.
DH -- Billy Butler, Royals (@OAK-2, BAL-4), 4.0: He's another red-hot hitter I wish I had remembered to lock into my Week 5 lineup. Sigh, we'll try again.
Pitching staff -- Mets (ATL-3, @SF-4), 6.2: Again, it's a seven-game week. But for the record, every time I have ever picked the Mets' staff in the BBC -- not that it has been often -- it has underperformed. Let's hope that streak is about to end.

Oh, and don't worry, I made sure I clicked the "save" button this time.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.